India's IIP sees 0.4% YoY growth in Oct 2025: Quick official estimates

India’s Index of Industrial Production (IIP) recorded a modest 0.4% year-on-year increase in October 2025, slowing sharply from September’s stronger performance. The Quick Estimate released by the government shows the IIP at 150.9 in October 2025, up from 150.3 a year earlier. Press Information Bureau

Manufacturing — which accounts for the bulk of IIP — stood at 151.1, registering a 1.8% YoY rise in October. Within manufacturing, 9 out of 23 NIC-2 industry groups posted positive growth for the month; the top contributors included basic metals, refined petroleum products, and motor vehicles. Press Information Bureau+1

A sectoral breakdown shows mixed performance: primary goods (index 148.9) contracted 0.6%, capital goods (111.8) rose 2.4%, intermediate goods (166.5) rose 0.9%, while infrastructure/construction goods (197.2) recorded a strong 7.1% rise. Consumer durables (129.2) and consumer non-durables (139.9) fell 0.5% and 4.4% respectively. Press Information Bureau

Two important short-term drivers of the slowdown were highlighted by officials and analysts. First, October had fewer working days because several major festivals — including Dussehra, Diwali and Chhath — fell in the month, which disrupted production schedules and factory activity. Second, mining and electricity output weakened, with electricity generation reported as notably lower — patterns linked to extended monsoon effects and milder temperatures that reduced power demand. These factors together helped explain the sharp month-on-month moderation. Reuters+1

What this means for industry and policy

• The dip to 0.4% marks a noticeable deceleration and takes IIP to a multi-month low, which could temper near-term GDP momentum and business sentiment. The Economic Times

• Capital goods continuing to grow (+2.4%) suggests that investment demand has some resilience, even as consumer durables and non-durables soften — a mixed signal for demand-side recovery. Press Information Bureau

• Policymakers and businesses will watch November and December industrial prints closely for signs of a rebound once festival-related disruptions pass and energy demand normalizes. Reuters

Actionable takeaways for business leaders

1. Reassess near-term production plans around festival calendars to avoid inventory glut or missed demand windows.

2. Monitor electricity and mining activity metrics — a clear drag in these sectors can ripple through downstream manufacturing.

3. Use the capital-goods growth signal to prioritize long-term plant/equipment upgrades where returns are visible.

Conclusion

October’s IIP print (0.4% YoY) is a short-term slowdown driven largely by calendar effects and temporary weakness in mining and electricity. While the print is softer than recent months and flags potential headwinds for end-year momentum, pockets of strength — especially in capital and infrastructure/construction goods — indicate that recovery pathways remain. The near-term outlook hinges on whether festival-related disruptions reverse in November–December and if energy and mining activity stabilize. Businesses should use this period to recalibrate production timing and watch incoming data closely. Press Information Bureau+1